This paper derives asymptotic normality of a class of M-estimators in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic ~GARCH! model+ The class of estimators includes least absolute deviation and Huber’s estimator in addition to the well-known quasi maximum likelihood estimator+ For some estimators, the asymptotic normality results are obtained only under the existence of fractional u...

this paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth uncertainty in iran for the period of 1988-2008 by using quarterly data. we employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (garch-m) model to estimate time-varying conditional residual variance of growth, as a standard measures of growth uncertainty. the empirical evidence shows that growth uncertain...

This paper presents theoretical models and their empirical results for the return and variance dynamics of German stocks. A factor structure is used in order to allow for a parsimonious modeling of the rst two moments of returns. Dynamic factor models with GARCH dynamics (GARCH(1,1)-M, IGARCH(1,1)-M, Nonlinear Asymmetric GARCH(1,1)-M and Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH(1,1)-M) and three di ere...

4 GARCH Models 7 4.1 Basic GARCH Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.2 Diagnostic Checking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.3 Regressors in the Variance Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.4 The GARCH–M Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.5 The Threshold GARCH (TARCH) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.6 The Exponential GARCH (EG...

In empirical work on multivariate financial time series, it is common to postulate a Multivariate GARCH model. We show that the popular Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of MGARCH models is very sensitive to outliers in the data. We propose to use robust M-estimators and provide asymptotic theory for M-estimators of MGARCH models. The Monte Carlo study and empirical application docume...

With the increase of wind power as a renewable energy source in many countries, wind speed forecasting has become more and more important to the planning of wind speed plants, the scheduling of dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market, and the operation of power systems. However, the uncertainty of wind speed makes troubles in them. For this reason, a wind speed f...

the research problem investigated in this paper is modeling volatility and analyzing risk and return’s relationship in tehran stock exchange using garch-family models including garch(1,1), garch(2,2), egarch(1,1), pgarch(1,1), tgarch(1,1), garch(1,1)-m and cgarch(1,1). using the daily returns of tehran stock exchange companies, we focused on two portfolios of all the companies during a 10-year-...

The role of price risk in sow farrowings is investigated by using bivariate ARCH-M and GARCH-M models and a nonparametric kernel estimator. To account for the relevant time horizon of irreversible supply decisions, predictions for mean price and conditional price variance are iterated forward. The empirical results vary markedly in terms of their implications for risk response in hog supply dec...